Identifying & Predicting Quarterly Inbound Tourism Demand Turning Points Using Logit and Probit models and Composite Leading Indicators

• 발행기관: 세계문화관광학회
• 저자명: Damian Fernando Nada Kulendren
• 간행물 정보: 『Conference Proceedings』9th International Joint World Cultural Tourism Conference 2008, 683~700쪽, 전체 18쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 관광학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2008.11.30

영문 초록

Due to the dynamic nature of world economies together with other random effects, tourism demand has become highly volatile and as a result, tourism demand growth turns from positive to negative and negative to positive. Tourism demand growth goes through expansion and recession periods and the expansion and recession periods are associated with positive and negative demand growth rates. Governments and tourism industry need an early prediction of turning points, such as expansion and recession and the duration of these periods for their planing and investment. The aims of the paper are identify the significant turning points in Australian inbound tourism demand through appropriate smoothing method, and predict turning points using composite leading indicator and non-linear econometric models (Logit and Probit Model). Finally the forecasting performance of the constructed CLI, existing composite leading Indicator available in DX data and the Logit and Probit model are assessed using Quadratic Probability Scores(QPS) and few other evaluation techniques.

목차

ABSTRACT

Introduction

Conclusions

References

키워드

Growth Rate Cycle Logit And Probit Models Composite Leading Indicator Tourism Forecasting