The Effect of Population Aging on Housing Price

• 발행기관: 한국자료분석학회
• 저자명: Sungwon Cho
• 간행물 정보: 『Journal of The Korean Data Analysis Society (JKDAS)』Vol.23 No.3, 1021~1029쪽, 전체 9쪽
• 주제분류: 자연과학 > 통계학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2021.06.30

영문 초록

This paper investigates Granger causality between population aging and housing price using the time series data of Korea. Old age dependency ratio is used as a measure of aging population, and the causality between population aging and housing price is examined by the Granger causality test using an error correction model. Prior to conducting the causality test, the time-series properties of variables are checked by the unit root and the cointegration tests, and an error correction model is constructed to examine the causal relationship between population aging and housing price. The unit root test result reveals that the variables are stationary after differencing and the cointegration test indicates that there is a cointegrating relationship between population aging and housing price. Following the cointegration test, an error correction model is specified to test for the causal relationship. The Granger causality test using an error correction model reveals strong causality running from population aging to housing price. Empirical results of this paper implies that population aging is useful in forecasting housing price, and prior values of population aging have the ability to predict the future values of housing price in Korea.

목차

1. Introduction

2. Data and Methodology

3. Empirical Results

4. Conclusion

References

키워드

housing price population aging old dependency ratio Granger causality error correction mode