Domestic Terrorism and Transnational Terrorism: A Granger Causal Analysis

• 발행기관: 한국자료분석학회
• 저자명: 박요한(Johann Park)
• 간행물 정보: 『Journal of The Korean Data Analysis Society (JKDAS)』Vol.22 No.2, 501~512쪽, 전체 12쪽
• 주제분류: 자연과학 > 통계학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2020.04.30

영문 초록

Terrorism can be clearly divided into two types, domestic and transnational terrorism. This study examines the possible dynamic relationship between these two types of terrorism. Although related, they are conceptually and empirically distinctive phenomena that may affect each other. However, previous research fails to distinguish their differences and ignores the possible causality between them. This previous practice makes it difficult to produce precise and unbiased estimates in assessing the causes and effects of domestic and transnational terrorism incidents. As a first step to address this problem in the literature, this study provides rationales and hypotheses for the possible two-way causality between domestic and transnational terrorism. Utilizing the most recent scholastic effort to separate the information of domestic terrorism incidents from that of transnational incidents worldwide for the 1970-2015 period, which are undistinguished in the original data source, global terrorism database (GTD), this study’s Granger causal analysis shows that transnational terrorism Granger causes domestic terrorism, but not the other way around.

목차

1. Introduction and motivation

2. Hypotheses

3. Research design

4. Results

5. Conclusion

References

키워드

terrorism domestic and transnational incidents Granger causality global terrorism database political survival.