Analysis of the Phillips Curve: An Assessment of Turkey

• 발행기관: 한국유통과학회
• 저자명: Mehmet NAR
• 간행물 정보: 『The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business(JAFEB)』Vol. 8 No.2, 65~75쪽, 전체 11쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경제학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2021.02.28

영문 초록

This study analyzes the validity of the Phillips curve with regards to Turkey. The existence and direction of the causality relationship (reason-outcome relationship) between unemployment and inflation is investigated using inflation and unemployment data for the period 1980-2019. Unit root tests were utilized to evaluate the stationarity of the series. In line with the Zivot-Andrews unit root test, which was developed in response to the criticism of the failure of studies that presented macro-variables like inflation to consider traditional unit root tests, in this research, the Engle-Granger cointegration test was implemented to check whether the series could perform a joint action, and, finally, the Granger causality relationship was explored. According to the results of the analysis, over the relevant period there was a single directional causality relationship from inflation toward unemployment in Turkey. The importance of this relationship at the 10% significance level indicates the existence of many different factors that affect inflation and unemployment. Given the existence of a cointegration and causality relationship between inflation and unemployment, it can be said that, in Turkey, the Phillips curve is valid for the period 1980-2019 and that an increase of 1% in inflation will reduce the unemployment rate by 0.028%.

목차

Ⅰ. Introduction

Ⅱ. Theoretical Framework

Ⅲ. Literature Review

Ⅳ. Research Methodology

Ⅴ. Findings

Ⅵ. Conclusion

키워드

Macroeconomics Phillips Curve Inflation Unemployment Adaptive Expectations