Fiscal Causal Hypotheses and Panel Cointegration Analysis for Sustainable Economic Growth in ASEAN

• 발행기관: 한국유통과학회
• 저자명: Maran MARIMUTHU Hanana KHAN Romana BANGASH
• 간행물 정보: 『The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business(JAFEB)』Vol. 8 No.2, 99~109쪽, 전체 11쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경제학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2021.02.28

영문 초록

This study aims to examine the causal links between the fiscal components, i.e., government expenditures (GE) and government revenues (GR), and their impact on the economic growth of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region. This analysis considered secondary panel data from 1990 to 2019 at an annual frequency. The data is obtained from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and World Bank Database. A panel cointegration and panel DH causality (Dumitrescu and Hurlin) approach was employed on financial data at an annual frequency from 1990 to 2019. The findings from panel unit root and panel cointegration tests demonstrate that, at first, all the variables are stationary and cointegrated. The panel ARDL disclosed that GE has a long-run connection with GDP, is significantly and positively associated with economic growth in the long run, whereas GR is significant in the short run. The contribution of GE is high in sustaining economic growth as compared to GR. Also, cointegration regression disclosed that GE is more sensitive toward GDP, while GR is less elastic. Lastly, the findings reveal that bidirectional causality exists between GE and GR variables. These results have policy implications for sustainable economic growth in the ASEAN region.

목차

Ⅰ. Introduction

Ⅱ. Literature Review

Ⅲ. Research Methods and Materials

Ⅳ. Empirical Results and Discussion

Ⅴ. Conclusion with Policy Remarks

키워드

Government Revenues Government Expenditures Fiscal Policy Economic Growth Panel Causality Analysis