Prediction of the Hazard Rate of CTX s First Occurrence

• 발행기관: 한국자료분석학회
• 저자명: 정대현(Daehyun Chung)
• 간행물 정보: 『Journal of The Korean Data Analysis Society (JKDAS)』Vol.17 No.6, 2849~2855쪽, 전체 7쪽
• 주제분류: 자연과학 > 통계학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2015.12.30

영문 초록

Culex tritaeniorhynchus (CTX) is a well-known mosquito which transmits Japanese encephalitis. To prevent Japanese encephalitis, we need to know the time and the places where Culex tritaeniorhynchus may occur. If we could predict the time when the mosquito will appear first in Korea, we can set up an excellent surveillance system and get facilities ready to treat Japanese encephalitis. In addition we may need the hazard rate of occurrence of the mosquito, which might depend on the period when the mosquito is absent, so that if the hazard rate becomes significantly high, we may activate an alarm of pre-caution in advance. This research intends to estimate the hazard rate for the first occurrence of Culex tritaeniorhynchus with the Cox regression model with the covariate, temperature corresponding to trapping time. We conclude that the hazard rate increases about 25% as the average temperature rises one degree in Celsius. In addition, if the mosquitos were not detected by the 35th week, the hazard rate of occurring is about 11%. So we suggest that an alarm system against Japanese encephalitis start from the 35th week.

목차

1. Introduction

2. Data

3. Research method

4. Conclusion

References

키워드

Cox regression model Culex tritaeniorhynchus hazard rate Japanese encephalitis surveillance system