Forecasting of Monthly Mean of Surface Air Temperature on Korean Peninsula

• 발행기관: 한국자료분석학회
• 저자명: 이정형(Jeong Hyeong Lee) 손건태(Keon Tae Sohn) Liyu Lu
• 간행물 정보: 『Journal of The Korean Data Analysis Society (JKDAS)』Vol.8 No.4, 1255~1264쪽, 전체 10쪽
• 주제분류: 자연과학 > 통계학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2006.08.30

영문 초록

In the conventional time series analysis, a process contains often modeled as three additive components: linear trend, seasonal effect and random noise. In this paper, we performed analysis of surface air temperature in the Korean peninsula using decomposition method in time series analysis. Applications to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research(NCAR) Collaborative Reanalysis data in the Korean peninsula discussed.The main finding is that the surface air temperature trend estimated for January 1948 to February 2006 was not statistically significant at 0.4321 C. We also consider forecasting aspects.

목차

1. Introduction

2. Data and region

3. Method and results

4. Concluding remarks

References

키워드

Korean peninsula surface air temperature time series decomposition method regression