Seasonal Forecast of Asian Dust over South Korea in Spring Season

• 발행기관: 한국자료분석학회
• 저자명: 손건태(Keon-Tae Sohn) 차미정(My-Jung Cha) 정관영(Kwan-Young Chung) 송승주(Seung-Joo Song)
• 간행물 정보: 『Journal of The Korean Data Analysis Society (JKDAS)』Vol.10 No.5, 2423~2433쪽, 전체 11쪽
• 주제분류: 자연과학 > 통계학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2008.10.30

영문 초록

This study aims to develop statistical models for the seasonal prediction of Asian dust in South Korea. The predictand is the average occurrence frequency of Asian dust in the spring season(March to May). Monthly data of Asian dust days at 28 sites in South Korea and four climate factors(rainfall amount, snow cover, surface air temperature and wind speed) in source regions of Asian dust during 1979 to 2007 are used. Three source regions that affect the Korean Peninsula are considered. Two statistical models, a multiple regression and a three-grade logistic regression model, are applied to generate the quantitative forecast and the ternary forecast(normal, below normal, above normal). Predictors are selected by the correlation analysis and stepwise regression method.

목차

1. Introduction

2. Data and methodology

3. Quantitative forecast

4. Categorical forecast

5. Concluding remarks

References

키워드

Asian Dust days quantitative forecast ternary forecast multiple regression logistic regression