전국 인구이동량 추정기법

• 영문명: Estimation Techniques for Population Movements in Korea
• 발행기관: 한국지역개발학회
• 저자명: 이호병(HoByung Lee)
• 간행물 정보: 『한국지역개발학회지』제13권 제2호, 1~12쪽, 전체 12쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 지역개발
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2001.09.30

영문 초록

The major concern of this paper is to deal with the usefulness and limitations of a single model in estimating population movements in a nationwide scale. This study was carried out by applying the entropy maximizing model of Wilson(1970) with the 1998 population movement data of National Statistical Office. The nationwide population movements estimated by a single entropy maximizing model were compared with the regionwide population movements modelled and analyzed by regional group separately. The primary results can be summarized as follows. First, the t-statistics and χ²-statistics produced in this study showed that the null hypothesis of equality between the mean estimation errors of the former and the latter population movement estimations could be rejected at the 5% significance level for the regions such as Kyonggi(including Seoul), Chungchung/Chunla. Kangwon, Kangwon/ Chunla, Kyongsang, Kyongsang/Chunla and Chunla. Second, the impedance parameter of the entropy maximizing model, β was estimated at 0.0170 for the nationwide scale. The kyonggi region(including Seoul) took the highest β-value, 0.0897. This means that this region has the highest sensitivity over travel time among all the regions. Third, the results imply that detailed decisions concerning application models should be very carefully made in applying entropy maximizing or gravity models to a nationwide scale analysis due to the characteristics of inter-regional(or intra-regional) movements in Korea.