기후변화 및 도시화에 따른 물순환 특성의 정량적 평가기법 및 적용 연구

• 영문명: Application and Development of Estimation Method to Assess Quantitative Change of Hydrological Properties Considering Impacts of Climate Change and Urbanization
• 발행기관: 한국방재학회
• 저자명: 김미은(Kim Mi Eun) 신현석(Shin Hyun Suk)
• 간행물 정보: 『3. 한국방재학회 학술대회논문집』2015년, 113~113쪽, 전체 1쪽
• 주제분류: 공학 > 기타공학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2015.02.25

영문 초록

The impacts of climate change and land use change are still causing changes in natural patterns as increase of temperature, rainfall intensity, and frequency of rainfall. Also, urbanization is well known to impact hydrology of basins because of its creation of impervious surfaces. This study has been investigated developing method being able to estimate changes of hydrological properties and assessing these changes on each city. For this study, it used three land use scenarios in 1975, 1990, and 2009 for considering impervious changes and future climate change scenario based on RCP 8.5 for impacts of climate change. Three clusters by k-means clustering method were formed by variables shown high correlations from results of Spearman's order-rank method and Kendall Tau for various variables as rate of each land cover over area of each subwatershed on 145 subwatersheds in Nakdong River, difference of rate of land cover area and CN (Curve Number) between scenarios based on scenario in 1975, and rate of hydrological properties like rate of evaporation, surface runoff, and groundwater. An assessment method using the results from correlation and cluster analysis was developed for deriving the weighted index in accordance with sensitive degree of hydrological property and increase of impervious area. The assessment method for sensitive city applied principal component analysis (PCA) method. Results show that Daegu is greatly sensitive on impacts of hydrological property and increase of impervious area. Consequently, linear regression equations on Daegu are derived by analysis of hydrologic response unit. Urbanization appeared to increase of surface runoff and decrease of evaporation and groundwater in accordance with change of land uses, also the results are considerably important and useful in case of development and design of city.

키워드

Water Cycle Urbanization Climate Change SWAT Model Cluster Analysis Principal Component Analysis