교역조건이 무역수지에 미치는 영향

• 영문명: Effect of Terms of Trade on Trade Balances: Evidence from Korea
• 발행기관: 한국무역연구원
• 저자명: 김애영(Ai-Young Kim)
• 간행물 정보: 『무역연구』제10권 제6호, 989~1002쪽, 전체 14쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 무역학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2014.12.31

영문 초록

This study examines the impact of terms of trade on the trade balances in Korea using annual data over the period 1971-2013. The relationship between terms of trade and trade balances has long received a great deal of attention since the seminal work of Harberger (1950) and Laursen and Metzler (1950). The Harberger-Laursen-Metzler (HLM) effect describes that an increase in the terms of trade, which is defined as the ratio of export price to import price, will improve the trade balance. Besides the terms of trade and trade balances, the real money supply and the real income are also included in this study. The empirical analysis is based on the bounds testing approach of cointegration developed by Pesaran et al. (2001). The results of the study strongly confirm that terms of trade have positive effects on trade balance which supports the HLM effect in Korea. According to the monetary approach to the balance of payment, increases in money supply lead to the increase in expenditure which results in deterioration of balance of payments. However, the empirical results of this study reveal that increases in money supply improve trade balance while the increases in real income cause decline in trade balances.

목차

Abstract

Ⅰ. 서론

Ⅱ. 선행 연구 및 이론적 고찰

Ⅲ. 자료 및 실증분석 방법

Ⅳ. 실증분석 결과

Ⅴ. 요약 및 결론

참고문헌

키워드

HLM effect Bounds Test cointegration unrestricted error correction model