국제유가 변동요인의 특성에 관한 연구

• 영문명: Determinants of Oil Price: Going Beyond the Traditional Factors
• 발행기관: 한국무역연구원
• 저자명: 최동현(Dong Hyun Choi) 이준서(June suh Yi)
• 간행물 정보: 『무역연구』제10권 제6호, 879~906쪽, 전체 28쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 무역학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2014.12.31

영문 초록

Many events related to oil price movements have occurred since the advent of oil ETFs in April 2006. These events include speculative demand for crude oil in expectation of a further rise in oil prices before the global financial crisis in 2008, a sharp decline of oil prices right after the crisis, poor demand for oil from emerging markets as well as the production of shale gas and shale oil to replace traditional energy sources. This study focuses on analyzing the driving factors of oil price movements based on monthly macro-economic data from the Bloomberg database from May 2006 to April 2014. Results show that oil price movements were dominated by speculative demand in the oil futures market during rising oil price. However, the U.S. dollar and consumer prices in the U.S. determined the price of oil during periods of stability. In addition, the oil ETF has not yet become a determinant of oil price. Results of this study will be helpful to investors doing portfolio management as well as in the cost management of companies and in the economic policy planning efforts of governments since oil price forecasting based on the true determinants will become possible.

목차

Abstract

Ⅰ. 서론

Ⅱ. 국제유가의 변동요인 및 선행연구

Ⅲ. 연구방법론

Ⅳ. 연구결과

Ⅴ. 결론 및 시사점

참고문헌

키워드

WTI futures price Oil stocks Oil ETF Non-commercial futures contract DXY