Economic Growth and Leader Tenure

• 발행기관: 한국자료분석학회
• 저자명: Johann Park
• 간행물 정보: 『Journal of The Korean Data Analysis Society (JKDAS)』Vol.19 No.6, 2909~2919쪽, 전체 11쪽
• 주제분류: 자연과학 > 통계학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2017.12.31

영문 초록

What explains the spell of top national leaders staying in power? Previous research has focused on international political factors, such as war, sanction, and terrorism, or domestic political factors such as democracy, state capacity, and civil war. This study examines the relationship between economic growth and leader tenure. A good economy can help political leadership by increasing (1) citizens’ satisfaction, (2) state resources, and (3) political legitimacy. Using the global cross-national sample for the post-World War period, this study finds a significant negative association between growth and leader exit, suggesting that economic growth reduces the chance that national leaders lose their political power. It also tests whether growth affects leader survival for both democracies and autocracies alike. Despite the previous finding that other important factors for leader tenure rarely affects the political survival of democratic leaders, my multiplicative interaction analysis shows that growth helps both democrats and autocrats maintain their political power.

목차

1. Introduction

2. Hypotheses

3. Research Design

4. Results

5. Conclusion

키워드

Economic growth political survival democracy binary time-series cross-sectional analysis fixed effects logit