제주지역 경제예측모형 구축에 관한 연구

• 발행기관: 한국지역개발학회
• 저자명: 고봉현 강기춘 강연실
• 간행물 정보: 『한국지역개발학회 세미나 논문집』2012년 춘계학술대회 발표집, 53~71쪽, 전체 19쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 지역학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2012.05.30

영문 초록

The purpose of this study is to construct the Jeju-do Regional Economic Forecasting Model. We analyze the general equilibrium of the Jeju-do economy and examine the inter-sectoral relationships in the region. This model consists of seven blocks-production block, employment block, wage and price level block, financial block, public finance block, foreign sector block, and other block. This model also consists of seventeen behavioral equations, three identity equations so that the model is the simultaneous equation system of twenty structural equations. We consider Ordinary Least Squares(OLS) as the estimation method. We rely on the Root Mean Squared Percent Error (RMSE%) in the evaluation of the models. And this model show the satisfactory levels of RMSE%, excepting import. After identifying the best model structure in term of the RMSE%, we perform policy simulation to measure the effects of three exogenous shocks on the Jeju-do regional economy; exchange rate shock, foreigner tourist shock, real national income shock. The result of the policy simulation is consistent with what various macroeconomic theories predicts. There remain a few issues which we deal with in the future research. First of all, the most difficult and important problem for building up the model was the data problem. Second, we need to combine the demand-side and supply-side models developed in this research into one general-equilibrium type model.

목차

1. 서 론

2. 지역경제예측모형의 방법론

3. 제주경제 예측모형 개발

4. 모형의 평가 및 정책모의실험

5. 결 론

키워드

제주지역 경제(Jeju Regional Economy) 연립방정식모형(Simultaneous Equation Model) 지역 거시계량경제모형(Regional Macroeconometric model) 예측모형(Forecasting Model)