관광수요와 관광수지의 예측

• 영문명: Forecasting Tourism Demand and Tourist Balance
• 발행기관: 한국관광학회
• 저자명: 모수원
• 간행물 정보: 『관광학연구』제29권 제2호, 317~336쪽, 전체 20쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 관광학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2005.10.31

영문 초록

At present there are numerous forecasting methods available. After reviewing these methods, this study estimates the Korean outbound and inbound tourists based on the econometric models. Two types of quantitative forecasting models were considered in this paper, time series and causal econometric model. The paper proceeds by comparing the forecasting performances of the structural models with those of the nonstructural model such as Box-Jenkins Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, concluding that the former outperforms the latter. Author also shows that while the outbound tourists increase rapidly, the inbound tourists increase slowly and the balance of trade deficit is expected to grow fast.

목차

ABSTRACT

Ⅰ. 서론

Ⅱ. 선행연구

Ⅲ. 관광수요함수의 추정과 예측

Ⅳ. 결론

참고문헌

키워드

balance of tourism RMSE GPH ARIMA structural model