우리나라 해외관광수요의 예측은 가능한가?

• 영문명: Can We Predict the Demand for Outbound Tourism in Korea?
• 발행기관: 한국관광학회
• 저자명: 모수원
• 간행물 정보: 『관광학연구』제31권 제3호, 189~208쪽, 전체 20쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 관광학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2007.06.30

영문 초록

The aim of this paper is to compare the forecasting performance of the structural model of outbound tourists with that of the random walk model. The RMSE indicates that the random walk model outperforms the short-run structural model in all forecasting steps for all countries concerned. The mean errors for short-run structural models are large in magnitude relative to the MAE’s. This fact indicates a systematic bias in short-run forecasting. We found a long-run relationship for the tourism model. This finding of the cointegrating vector indicates that the structural model can be interpreted as having long-run validity. We, hence, proceeded by estimating the error-correction model and compared the forecasting performance of the model. The results of the long-run forecasts were markedly different from those of the short-run model. The error-correction models outperformed the random walk at all steps for the three criteria and seven countries. The results of the study suggest that while the structural tourism models provide poorer performance than the random walk for short-run forecasting, they outperform the random walk model in the long-run forecasting.

목차

I. 서론

II. 안정성 검정과 모형 추정

III. 예측력 평가

IV. 결론

참고문헌

키워드

예측 관광수요 예측오류