Bayesian Detection and Attribution of Climate Change on East-China Surface Air Temperatures

• 발행기관: 한국자료분석학회
• 저자명: Jeong-Hyeong Lee Keon Tae Sohn
• 간행물 정보: 『Journal of The Korean Data Analysis Society (JKDAS)』Vol.12 No.3, 1185~1198쪽, 전체 14쪽
• 주제분류: 자연과학 > 통계학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2010.06.30

영문 초록

In this paper we performed that climate change signal detection and attribution were studied for the surface air temperature in the East-China region. We use a Bayesian fingerprints methodology to compare annual data from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and three coupled models’ simulations. It is exemplified with NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1966 to 2005 as observation, a greenhouse-gas forced scenario(G) with three realizations, and a greenhouse-gas plus sulphate aerosol forced scenario(GS) with six realizations generated by these three coupled models. A Bayesian fingerprint analysis of the evidence for anthropogenic climate change in the East-China region surface air temperature observations is described with changes in both climate change scenarios(G and GS). Our findings are shown that there is a very weak or statistically no significant anthropogenic climate change in the East-China surface air temperature change over the past four decades(1966-1975, 1976-1985, 1986-1995, and 1996-2005) and there is not strong evidence for attribution assessments to the G and GS represented in our fingerprints and specific definition of the attribution region.

목차

1. Introduction

2. Data and region

3. Theory

4. Results

5. Concluding remarks

References

키워드

climate change East China optimal fingerprint detection attribution