국내와인소비시장 수요예측에 관한 연구

• 영문명: A Study on the Demand Forecast of the Korean Wine Market
• 발행기관: 한국외식경영학회
• 저자명: 방진식(Jin sik Bang) 조경숙(Kyong sook Cho)
• 간행물 정보: 『외식경영연구』4권 1호, 105~123쪽, 전체 18쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경영학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2001.06.30

영문 초록

The Korean wine industry has continued its development for the last 30 years thank to the government's supporting policy for the wine industry. The scale of domestic wine market has been growing conspicuously since various kinds of wine were imported from France and other countries starting from the end of 1987 when the import of foreign wines was allowed. In this paper, I tried to grasp the scale and trend of the future Korean wine market by forecasting the demand of domestic wine consumption which is on the continuous increase. In this study, I drew a regression analysis model with the independent variables of eating - out expenses and GDP(Gross Domestic Product) to forecast the future wine consumption. And this regression model has been used in forecasting the wine consumption between 2001 and 2020. Based on the growth rate of the two independent variables of actual eating - out expenses and GDP for the last 12 years, I forecasted the wine consumption for 3 cases of scenario I, II, III. Regression Analysis Model on Demand Forecast of Wine Consumption Wd = f(GDP, EO) Wd : Total Wine Consumption GDP : Gross Domestic Product EO : Eating - out Expenses per person In this paper, I forecasted total wine consumption, the consumption of domestic and imported wines. The forecast says that wine consumption will increase stably for the next 10 years, but it will increase rapidly from then on. As for the market competition between domestic and imported wines, the consumption of imported wines will be double that of domestic ones in 2004 and 4 times in 2007. The consumption of domestic wines will drastically decrease after 2004 and its market share will go down below 20% in 2007, and will be almost extinct after 2011.

목차

Ⅰ. 서론

Ⅱ. 와인 소비의 이론적 배경

Ⅲ. 국내와인시장 소비량 수요예측

Ⅳ. 결론

참고문헌

ABSTRACT