레스토랑 매출 예측에 관한 연구

• 영문명: A Study on the Forecasting Restaurant Sales
• 발행기관: 한국외식경영학회
• 저자명: 나정기(Jeng ki Na)
• 간행물 정보: 『외식경영연구』4권 1호, 49~64쪽, 전체 15쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경영학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2001.06.30

영문 초록

In setting the objective of restaurant sales, this study used the value obtained by sung the simple moving average method of predict the short-term amount of sales. And it attempted to evaluate the accuracy of the prediction method by comparing the predicted value and the actual amount of sales through the irregular and cyclic indexes. To add to further accuracy, an attempt was made to conduct seasonal adjustment excluding the seasonal factor from the original series(actual amount of sales). Seasonal fluctuations are the one that are annually periodically repeated according to climate, economy and social norms, monthly time-series data were used. It is easy to evaluate the data of comparison at the same point in time identical with the ratio of the same month previous year. For this purpose, an attempt was made to adjust for seasonal fluctuations using the 12-period moving average method. Data obtained through this showed that the actual amount of sales in Jan 2001 accounted for 1,914,362,131won, whereas the predicted amount of sales accounted for 1,938,296,346won, which indicates that the gap between the actual and predicted amount of sales accounted for 23,934,215won(standard deviation:l.3%). That is, the results of comparison between the actual and predicted amount of sales over the 5-month period between January and May, 2001 showed that the standard deviation averaged 3.3%. The accuracy of the short-term prediction of the amount of restaurant sales was generally low(55% for more than ±3%), which was lower than 43% for rooms and 45% for catering. On the other hand, in predicting the short-term amount of restaurant sales the accuracy of the prediction method using the irregular or cyclic indexes obtained by eliminating the predicted value and the seasonal index could be said to be high. It is thought that this study laid the foundation for estimating and setting the target amount though the quantitative method by getting away form the past qualitative method in predicting the short-term amount of restaurant sales, but the absence of the original and pragmatic previous studies led to the evaluation of the accuracy of only one model of demand prediction. And there are several models in relation to the method of prediction by time series, but the optimal model could not be found in the results of prediction using only the moving average method. It is expected that with this point in mind, future research will be conducted based on the findings of this study in the following direction: First, the tourism industry sector is using time series, but used largely for industrial analysis and demand for tourists. With this point in mind, work schedule, and purchase and production(preparation) management should be preferentially conducted through more rational and effective demand prediction in the foodservice sector where great capital investment is made. Second, sustained research should be conducted to find out the optimal model for demand prediction in the foodservice sector.

목차

Ⅰ. 서론

Ⅱ. 연구의 이론적 배경

Ⅲ. 시계열을 이용한 매출액 예측

Ⅳ. 결론

참고문헌

ABSTRACT