제약기반의 프로젝트 일정리스크 평가 및 예측

• 영문명: Assessment and Prediction of Project Schedule Risk Based on Schedule Constraints
• 발행기관: 한국산업경영시스템학회
• 저자명: 성홍석(Hongsuk Sung) 박철순(Chulsoon Park)
• 간행물 정보: 『한국산업경영시스템학회 학술대회』2013년 추계학술대회 논문집, 119~119쪽, 전체 0쪽
• 주제분류: 공학 > 산업공학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2013.10.23

영문 초록

The project-based business companies usually have much interest in predicting the expected finish date and related probability of project completion to refer at their proposals for projects. In general, the management of projects schedule risk is achieved by modeling project schedule with PERT/CPM techniques, then performing risk assessment with Monte-Carlo simulation method. However, since these approaches cannot reflect various schedule constraints, the project managers cannot prepare for the project risks in advance of their. This paper proposed a methodology for predicting project schedule risk by identifying and enforcing the constraints which may occur in a storage tank engineering and construction project environment. We applied our approach to a storage tank construction project to validate its feasibility. By using the methodology proposed in this paper, the project schedule risk can be evaluated and predicted more accurately and practically than the PERT/CPM or Monte-Carlo simulation approach.

키워드

Project Risk Management Project Schedule Risk Monte-Carlo simulation PERT/CPM