계절 ARIMA 모형을 통한 호텔객실매출액의 예측

• 영문명: Forecasting of Hotel Bedroom Sales By Seasonal ARIMA Model: The Case of Gyeongju Deluxe Hotels
• 발행기관: 한국관광학회
• 저자명: 金在錫 孫殷鎬
• 간행물 정보: 『관광학연구』제30권 제2호, 381~398쪽, 전체 18쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 관광학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2006.04.30

영문 초록

Sun-lust resort hotel unlike other businesses tend to suffer from high seasonal and economic fluctuations at high-low season or weekday-weekend period. Using monthly sales data of deluxe hotel of Gyeongju. during past ten years this paper forecasts and evaluates the bedroom sales trends. The result shows that the difference exists quite a lot between on-season and off-season of room sales of deluxe hotel of Gyeongju. In the forecast multiplicative seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0) model was found the most appropriate one. Authors suggest that the daily sales forecast are preferable to monthly sales forecast if data conditions are met.

목차

I. 서론

II. 호텔객실매출액 추정에 있어서 계절성

III. 사례적용예측

IV. 결론

참고문헌

키워드

호텔객실매출액 추정 시계열분석 계절ARIMA모형 예측