A Macro Analysis of Tourist Arrival in Nepal

• 발행기관: 한국유통과학회
• 저자명: Tulsi PAUDEL Thakur DHAKAL Wen Ya LI Yeong Gug KIM
• 간행물 정보: 『The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business(JAFEB)』Vol. 8 No.1, 207~215쪽, 전체 9쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경제학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2021.01.30

영문 초록

The number of tourists visiting Nepal has shown rapid growth in recent years, and Nepal is expecting more tourist arrivals in the future. This paper, thus, attempts to analyze the tourist arrivals in Nepal and predict the number of visitors until 2025. This paper has examined the international tourist arrival trend in Nepal using the Gompertz and Logistic growth model. The international tourist arrival data from 1991 to 2018 is used to investigate international tourist arrival trends. The result of the analysis found that the Gompertz model performs a better fit than the Logistic model. The study further forecast the expected tourist arrival below one million (844,319) by 2025. Nevertheless, the government of Nepal has the goal of two million tourists in a year. The present study also discusses system dynamics scenarios for the two million potential visitors within a year. Scenario analysis shows that proper advertisement and positive word-of-mouth will be key factors in achieving a higher number of tourists. The current study could fill the gap of theoretical and empirical forecasting of tourist arrivals in the Nepalese tourism industry. Also, the study findings would be beneficial for government officers, planners and investors, and policy-makers in the Nepalese tourism industry.

목차

1. Introduction

2. Overview of Nepalese Tourism Industry

3. Overview of Visit Nepal Campaign and Tourist Arrivals

4. Methodology and Data

5. Results

6. Conclusions and Implications

References

키워드

Tourist Arrivals System Dynamics Nepal Tourism Tourist Forecasting Econometric Analysis