Determinants and Prediction of the Stock Market during COVID-19: Evidence from Indonesia

• 발행기관: 한국유통과학회
• 저자명: Thomas Sumarsan GOH Henry HENRY Albert ALBERT
• 간행물 정보: 『The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business(JAFEB)』Vol. 8 No.1, 1~6쪽, 전체 6쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경제학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2021.01.30

영문 초록

This research examines the stock market index determinants and the prediction using the FFT curve fitting of the Jakarta Stock Exchange (JKSE) Composite Index during the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper has used daily data of Jakarta Stock Exchange (JKSE) Composite Index, interest rate, and exchange rate from 15 October 2019 to 15 September 2020, and a total of 224 observations, retrieved from Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), Indonesia Statistics Central Bureau and Observation & Research of Taxation. The study covers descriptive statistics, multicollinearity test, hypothesis tests, determination test, and prediction using FFT curve fitting. The results unveil four fresh and robust evidence. Partially, the interest rate has affected positively and significantly the stock market index. Partially, the exchange rate has affected negatively and significantly the stock market index. The F-test result, interest rate, and exchange rate have significantly affected the stock market index (JKSE) simultaneously. Furthermore, the FFT curve fitting has predicted that the stock market fluctuates and increases over time. The results have shown a strong influence of the independent variables and the dependent variable. The value of Adjusted R-Square is 0.719, which means that the independent variables have simultaneously impacted the dependent variable for 71.9%; other factors have influenced the remaining 28.1%.

목차

1. Introduction

2. Literature Review

3. Data and Methodology

4. Results and Discussion

5. Conclusions

References

키워드

Stock Market Interest Rate Exchange Rate FFT Curve Fitting Prediction