방한 미국여행객의 국제 수요변동성 분석

• 영문명: Estimating volatility of American tourist demand with a pleasure purpose in Korea inbound tourism market
• 발행기관: 한국통상정보학회
• 저자명: 김기홍(Kee-Hong Kim)
• 간행물 정보: 『통상정보연구』제10권 제1호, 395~414쪽, 전체 20쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 무역학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2008.03.30

영문 초록

The objective of this study is to introduce the concepts and theories of conditional heteroscedastic volatility models and the news impact curves and apply them to the Korea inbound tourism market. Three volatility models were introduced and used to estimate the conditional volatility of monthly arrivals of inbound tourists into Korea and news impact curves according to the three models. Results of this study are as follows. As the proportion of American tourists occupied a large amount of Korea inbound tourism market, the markets’ forecasting is very important. The news impact curves which used EGARCH model (1,1) and TGARCH model(1,1), with data on these tourists to Korea showed an asymmetry effect of volatility. It was common that bad news means that it was estimated more sensitively than good news From these results, we will notice that American tourists who visited Korea only for tourism are affected by good news. The result suggests that the Korea government and tourism industry should pay more attention to changes in the tourism environment following bad news because conditional volatility increases more when a negative shock occurs than when a positive shock occurs.

목차

Ⅰ. 서론

Ⅱ. 이론적 배경

Ⅲ. 연구 설계

Ⅳ. 실증 분석

Ⅴ. 결론

참고문헌

Abstract

키워드

Volatility Service Trade Int’l Tourism