도시계획의 인구추계 분석 ; 대전도시계획의 경우

• 영문명: Analysis of Urban Population Projection ; in case of Taejon
• 발행기관: 한국지역개발학회
• 저자명: 박서호(Park SeoHo) 강병주(Kang ByungJoo)
• 간행물 정보: 『한국지역개발학회지』제9권 제3호, 161~182쪽, 전체 22쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 지역개발
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 1997.12.30

영문 초록

Population is the initial factor in urban planning. It is not easy work to forecast population. The future is different from the past, however the future is rooted in the past. So that in the latter view of point, future population is countable from the past extrapolation. Population forecasting needs past data and its reliability, forecasting techniques and its validity, and criteria to evaluate the techniques are all critical factors. With these three aspects this paper analyzed population forecasting in 7 Taejon urban plans from 1965 to 1997, and project Taejon future population from 2001 to 2020. Taejon urban plans have several defaults. First, those did not use fully population data published before, and did not consider data consistency which is related with data collection method and population change due to administration district annexation or urban planning area expansion. Second, it is doubtable to be correctly and suitably applied for forecasting techniques. Third, 4 urban plans among 7 urban plans, population projections are not near to the actual population with references to the mean of average percentage error. This paper tries to adjust past population data, to count the reliable parameters for population projection from data, to choose Gompertz curve as a optimal model according to the input and output evaluation methods. From the analysis, we got Taejon population in 2020, 1,930 thousand.