우리나라 교역구조와 환율이 경상수지에 미치는 영향

• 영문명: Effects of Trade Structure and Exchange Rate on Current Account in Korea
• 발행기관: 한국통상정보학회
• 저자명: 김창범(Chang-Beom Kim)
• 간행물 정보: 『통상정보연구』제12권 제4호, 111~126쪽, 전체 16쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 무역학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2010.12.30

영문 초록

This paper provides an empirical investigation of the determinants of current accounts utilizing an exchange rate (ER), terms of trade (NET), industrial activity (IPI), world import volume (WIM), trade share of the China and Japan (CHJP), proportion of service trade (SERV). The period examined is 1991:1 through 2010:2. It is tested under different cases such as whether variables were cointegrated and whether there was an equilibrium relationship. The result showed that the hypothesis of no cointegrated vector could be rejected at the 5 percent level. The estimated error correction model showed that adjustment speed is fast. This paper also applies impulse-response functions to get additional information by considering the responses of the current account to the shocks of economic variables. The results indicate that current account responds negatively to industrial activity and proportion of service trade, and then decays very quickly.

목차

Ⅰ. 서론

Ⅱ. 선행연구 검토, 모형도입, 공적분관계의 검정

Ⅲ. 장기균형식, 전향적 이동회귀, 오차수정모형

Ⅳ. 분산분해와 충격반응

Ⅴ. 요약 및 정책적 시사점

참고문헌

키워드

current account trade structure exchange rate service trade