Global Gold Decoupling from the Dollar and Its implications

• 발행기관: 한국통상정보학회
• 저자명: Dae-Seok Chae Hyung-Doh Hur
• 간행물 정보: 『통상정보연구』제8권 제1호, 1~27쪽, 전체 27쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 무역학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2006.03.30

영문 초록

Gold prices are rising around the world in all major currencies. This is a telltale sign of a Stage Two gold bull where gold decouples from the US dollar. In this study, We analysed a confluence of factors seem to be feeding gold’s gains and the typical shape of a secular gold bull---gold bulls’ three stages. Stages one, two, and three of a secular gold bull are defined by the major changes. Each stage, considered in turn, makes perfect sense when described in terms of global investor demand. Since Stage One is currency-devaluation driven, the young gold bull is most noticeable in terms of the dominant eroding currency. Now after three or four years of stage one, Stage Two arrives. Stage Two marks a momentous event when gold decouples from the local-currency devaluation. In the case of our gold bull today, Stage Two will be here when gold starts consistently rising faster than the dollar is able to fall. After five or so years of Stage Two gains, gold has a chance at going ballistic in stage three. Stage Three is only ignited if the general public around the world starts growing enamored with gold investing. In summary, the first stage being when insiders and professionals invest in the market. The second stage is when the general public and financial media recognizes that the bull market is real. The third stage is the mania stage when people feel that not only is the bull market real, but it is a must own situation. Through the study we found that gold is entering it now.

목차

Ⅰ. Introduction

Ⅱ. Global gold bull and the main reasons

Ⅲ. Gold’s supply and demand imbalance, and production cycles

Ⅳ. Gold bulls’ three stages and gold’s decoupling from the dollar

Ⅴ. Summary of main conclusions

References

Abstract

키워드

Gold Bull Market Gold Bulls Three Stages