Numerical Precision on Judgmental Forecasting

• 발행기관: 한국생산관리학회
• 저자명: Moonsu Koo
• 간행물 정보: 『한국생산관리학회 학술대회 논문집』2019년 추계학술대회, 26~26쪽, 전체 1쪽
• 주제분류: 인문학 > 문학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2019.11.08

영문 초록

Numerical precision refers to precision of a number defined by the number of ending zeroes. For example, 14,595 is comparatively precise number than 14,000; 14,000 is comparatively round number than 14,595.We investigate the effect of numerical information format on judgmental forecasting task. In other words, for demand forecasting task, we investigate the impact of information related to numerical precision on the task. Furthermore, we examine the use of numbers in forecasting by restricting precision level. More specifically, we compare the performance of numerically precise forecasting and numerically round forecasting. We formulate hypotheses based on existing researches related to judgmental forecasting, numerical precision, construal level theory. Moreover, we test the hypotheses using online experiment via Amazon’s Mechanical Turk.

키워드

Behavioral operations Experimental study Numerical precision Constual level Judgmental forecasting Demand chasing