주택경기 순환주기의 지역 간 관계 분석

• 영문명: Relations Among Regional Housing Business Cycles
• 발행기관: 한국주택학회
• 저자명: 권순신(Soon Shin Kwon) 최성호(Seong Ho Choi)
• 간행물 정보: 『한국주택학회 학술대회 발표논문집』2018년 상반기학술대회 자료집, 81~98쪽, 전체 18쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경제학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2018.05.18

영문 초록

Korean government is implementing so called “tweezers-regulations” recently. Research on ripple effect is necessary to predict its impact, but there are few in Korean housing market. We tried to analyze the ripple effect by regional housing business cycles. We used CF filter while most of the preceding researches in Korea used HP filter to extract cyclical component. Our cross correlation analysis suggests that capital area’s housing business cycle precedes the housing business cycles of 5 metropolis and other provinces. Granger causality test supports the theory and it also suggest that all three regional housing business cycles granger-cause to each other. According to our VAR analysis, however, 5 metropolis and other provinces do not cause each other but move independently. We tried to explain these relations among regional housing business cycles by housing demand, supply, GDP and housing mortgage. The result of regression analysis on regional housing business cycles and other variables’ business cycles shows that there are hierarchical sensitivity on GDP and housing mortgage balance among those regions. So we narrowly concludes that the ripple effect on three regions might exists not just because of the market expectation, but because of regional market fundamentals.

목차

<요약>

I. 서론

II. 선행연구의 고찰

III. 실증분석

IV. 결론

참고문헌

키워드

경기순환 CF필터 주택매매가격 VAR모형 물결효과 Business Cycle CF Filter House Sales Price Index VAR Model Ripple Effect