유럽의 경기침체가 한‧EU FTA 이후 대EU 수출에 미친 영향: 벡터오차수정모형(VECM)을 활용한 요인분석

• 영문명: Economic Recession in the European Union (EU) and Korea’s Exports to the EU: An Analysis of the Post Korea-EU FTA Era
• 발행기관: 한국무역연구원
• 저자명: 강유덕(Yoo-Duk Kang)
• 간행물 정보: 『무역연구』제12권 제6호, 187~206쪽, 전체 20쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 무역학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2016.12.31

영문 초록

Korea’s exports to the European Union (EU) has declined since the implementation of the Korea-EU FTA. This study identifies main factors of this unusual trade development after implementing the FTA and analyzes the impact of EU economic growth and won-euro exchange rate on Korea’s export to the EU, using a vector error correction model (VECM). While most of the impact assessment studies of FTAs focus on tariff cut and its impact on trade, this study examines the impact of the business cycle and exchange rate. During 5 years of implementing the Korea-EU FTA, Korea’s exports to the EU dropped by 17.6% from US$ 57.89 billion in the year before the FTA was implemented to US$ 47.73 billion. Contrary to this development, Korea’s imports from the EU increased from US$ 43.37 billion to US$ 53.99 billion. This contrasting outcomes stem from several reasons, such as business cycle gap between Korea and the EU, weak euro, excessive concentration of Korean exports to a small number of products and increasing relocation of Korean production bases overseas. The analysis based on the VECM shows that Korea’s export depends heavily on the economic growth of the EU. This study suggests that an ex ante analysis of the FTA should consider the business cycle of trade partners and such analysis must take into account changes in export structure in relation with overseas investment and the global product business cycle.

키워드

Business Cycle Co-integration Exchange Rate Korea-EU FTA Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)