변이할당분석을 이용한 충청남도 제조업의 변화와 전망

• 영문명: Structure change and prospect of manufacturing industry in Chungcheongnamdo using shift-share analysis :
• 발행기관: 한국지역개발학회
• 저자명: 유범식(Yoo Beom sik) 김성록(Kim Sung rok) 이종상(Lee Jong sang)
• 간행물 정보: 『한국지역개발학회지』제27권 제1호, 165~183쪽, 전체 19쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 지역개발
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2015.03.30

영문 초록

Chungcheongnamdo was designated as analysis area for the thesis. The scope and object were number of workers in manufacturing industry from 1999 to 2011. In order to systematically analyze economic growth factor and economic characteristics of the region, Shift-share analysis was conducted. For securing stability of data, comparative analysis was carried out by year period, for example, between 2000-2011 and 1999-2010 etc. As a result, it could be known that if criterium year and compared year is different by even one year, the result was very different. Accordingly, to improve instability of regional data, Linear regression analysis was done based on time series data from 1999 to 2011. And Shift-share analysis of 1999-2011 with estimated value was conducted. And in order to forecast number of workers in manufacturing industry of Chungcheongnamdo in 2020, shift-share forecast model was used for the estimation. But this was a method with lack of reality which was not proper as a forecasting method. To supplement this problem, formularized quadratic programming based on information theory was used to forecast number of workers in 2020.

목차

1. 서 론

2. 분석방법 및 자료

3. 충청남도 제조업의 변이할당분석

4. 충청남도 제조업의 구조 전망

5. 결론 및 제언

주

참 고 문 헌

키워드

변이할당분석(shift-share analysis) 선형회귀분석(linear regression analysis) 이차계획법(quadratic programming) 변이할당 예측모형(shift-share forecast model) 정보이론(information theory)