한국의 경제성장과 외채수준 간 관계 실증연구

• 영문명: An Empirical Analysis on the Relation between Korean Economic Growth and External Debt Level
• 발행기관: 한국무역연구원
• 저자명: 이순호(Soon-Ho Lee)
• 간행물 정보: 『무역연구』제11권 제5호, 597~612쪽, 전체 16쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 무역학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2015.11.30

영문 초록

This paper tries to investigate whether debt overhang exists in Korea. In addition, it estimates the optimal debt level of Korea-optimal in terms of the level which maximizes growth-and compares the current level of debt with the optimal level. The results of the analysis confirm that debt overhang exists in Korea. Total and long-term external debt have a positive effect on growth up to a certain level. However, negative effects exist afterwards. The estimated optimal level of total debt was about 24% of GDP, while long-term debt was 16% of GDP. Based on this estimation, the current level of external debt as of the end of September 2014 in both cases are somewhat higher than the optimal level. In the paper, the non-linear regression model was used where the relationship between debt and growth is in the quadratic functional form.

목차

I. 서론

II. 선행연구의 검토

III. 우리나라의 외채규모와 구조 변화

IV. 실증분석

V. 결론

키워드

Debt Overhang External Debt Optimal Debt Level