중국의 교역조건이 산출량과 인플레이션에 미치는 영향 분석

• 영문명: The Effects of China’s Terms of Trade on Output and Inflation
• 발행기관: 한국무역연구원
• 저자명: 위위(Wei Wei)
• 간행물 정보: 『무역연구』제11권 제5호, 391~414쪽, 전체 24쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 무역학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2015.11.30

영문 초록

The paper investigates the impact of terms of trade shock on real GDP, consumer price index (CPI) and real effective exchange rate. Based on VAR model, this paper analyzes the impact of terms of trade on macroeconomic volatility before and after the exchange rate regime reform in China. Before the second quarter 2005, the impulse response analysis shows that the responses of 1% shock of terms of trade result in 0.147%, 0.472% and 0.061% decrease in real effective exchange rate, real GDP, and consumer price index, respectively. After the exchange rate regime reform, the shock leads to 0.181% increases in real effective exchange rate, and 0.068%, 0.082% decrease in real GDP and consumer price index, respectively. The results of variance decomposition indicate that after the exchange rate regime reform, the influence of terms of trade to real GDP has been declined sharply, but as to consumer price index the influence has been bigger than before the reform.

목차

I. 서론

II. 기존 문헌연구

III. 변수의 추이와 기초통계량

IV. 기초검정 및 추정모형

V. 분석결과

VI. 요약 및 결론

키워드

Consumer Price Index Real GDP Terms of Trade Shock VAR Model