시계열 분석을 이용한 전기자동차 수요예측

• 영문명: Electric car demand forecast through Time-series analysis
• 발행기관: 한국산업경영시스템학회
• 저자명: 김민근(Kim Min Geun) 장성호(Chang Sung Ho)
• 간행물 정보: 『한국산업경영시스템학회 학술대회』2014년 추계학술대회 논문집, 66~72쪽, 전체 7쪽
• 주제분류: 공학 > 산업공학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2014.10.23

영문 초록

The hottest conversation topic in motor vehicle industry now is environment-friendly car. After the rapid rise of oil price in 2008, most themes of motor shows in many countries became environment-friendly car. As the global issues of oil resource depletion and global warming combined with the interest in motor vehicle industry trying to secure new growth driving power and next generation leadership, environment-friendly car is no longer a matter in the future but it became an ongoing task. Different from existing studies which used regression analysis, this study analyzed the sales data of electric car by way of time-series analysis, which is being widely applied to the demand forecast in various fields including finance, economics and trading. The sales data of electric car from 1999 till 2013 was used in the forecast of electric car demand by way of model identification, parameter estimation of the identified model and suitability test of the model. In addition, clearer electric car demand forecast was sought by analyzing the relationship with the change of oil price. The significance of this study is that it did the demand forecast of electric car by time-series analysis.

목차

Abstract

1. 서론

2. 수요예측 및 시계열 분석 기법

3. 검정 통계량

4. 예측의 실증 설계

5. 예측결과 산출

6. 예측 결과

7. 결론 및 향후 연구

참고문헌

키워드

Electric car Time-series Demand forecast