의사결정트리를 활용한 황사예보의 경제적 가치 분석

• 영문명: Economic Value Analysis of Asian Dust Forecasts Using Decision Tree-Focused on Medicine Inventory Management
• 발행기관: 한국산업경영시스템학회
• 저자명: 윤승철(Seung-Chul Yoon) 이기광(Ki-Kwang Lee)
• 간행물 정보: 『산업경영시스템학회지』제37권 제1호, 120~126쪽, 전체 6쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경영학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2014.03.31

영문 초록

This paper deals with the economic value analysis of meteorological forecasts for a hypothetical inventory decision-making situation in the pharmaceutical industry. The value of Asian dust (AD) forecasts is assessed in terms of the expected value of profits by using a decision tree, which is transformed from the specific payoff structure. The forecast user is assumed to determine the inventory level by considering base profit, inventory cost, and lost sales cost. We estimate the information value of AD forecasts by comparing the two cases of decision-making with or without the AD forecast. The proposed method is verified for the real data of AD forecasts and events in Seoul during the period 2004~2008. The results indicate that AD forecasts can provide the forecast users with benefits, which have various ranges of values according to the relative rate of inventory and lost sales cost.

목차

Abstract

1. 서론

2. 의약품 재고수준 결정문제

3. 기상예보(황사예보)의 기대가치

4. 실제 황사예보자료 기반 분석결과

5. 결론

References

키워드

Decision Tree Inventory Problem Asian Dust Forecasts Information Value Analysis