Prediction of the 10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in the Korean population

• 영문명: Prediction of the 10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in the Korean population
• 발행기관: 한국역학회
• 저자명: Sangwoo Park Yong-Giun Kim Soe Hee Ann Young-Rak Cho Shin-Jae Kim Seungbong Han Gyung-Min Park
• 간행물 정보: 『Epidemiology and Health』45, 1~10쪽, 전체 10쪽
• 주제분류: 의약학 > 면역학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2023.01.01

영문 초록

OBJECTIVES: Proper risk assessment is important for the primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). However, no validated risk prediction tools are currently in use in Korea. This study sought to develop a 10-year risk prediction model for incident ASCVD. METHODS: Using the National Sample Cohort of Korea, 325,934 subjects aged 20-80 years without previous ASCVD were enrolled. ASCVD was defined as a composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, and stroke. The Korean atherosclerotic cardiovas cular disease risk prediction (K-CVD) model was developed separately for men and women using the development dataset and validated in the validation dataset. Furthermore, the model performance was compared with the Framingham risk score (FRS) and pooled cohort equation (PCE). RESULTS: Over 10 years of follow-up, 4,367 ASCVD events occurred in the overall population. The predictors of ASCVD included in the model were age, smoking status, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, lipid profiles, urine protein, and lipid-lowering and blood pressure-lowering treatment. The K-CVD model had good discrimination and strong calibration in the validation dataset (time-dependent area under the curve=0.846; 95% confidence interval, 0.828 to 0.864; calibration χ2=4.73, goodness-of-fit p=0.32). Compared with our model, both FRS and PCE showed worse calibration, overestimating ASCVD risk in the Korean population. CONCLUSIONS: Through a nationwide cohort, we developed a model for 10-year ASCVD risk prediction in a contemporary Korean population. The K-CVD model showed excellent discrimination and calibration in Koreans. This population-based risk prediction tool would help to appropriately identify high-risk individuals and provide preventive interventions in the Korean population.

목차

INTRODUCTION

MATERIALS AND METHODS

RESULTS

DISCUSSION

DATA AVAILABILITY

SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIALS

CONFLICT OF INTEREST

FUNDING

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

AUTHOR CONTRIBUTIONS

ORCID

REFERENCES

키워드

Cardiovascular disease Risk assessment Risk factors Primary prevention