북한의 위기관리 능력과 특징

• 영문명: A study on North korea's crisis management capability and characteristic : With special reference to North Korea's 'nuclear suspicion' case
• 발행기관: 한국통일전략학회
• 저자명: 정희태
• 간행물 정보: 『통일전략』5권 2호, 372~404쪽, 전체 33쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 정치외교학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2005.12.30

국문 초록

본 연구의 목적은 1980년대 말 - 1994년 10월 21일 북·미 핵합의에 이르기까지의 북한의 ‘핵의혹’ 발생과 이를 둘러싼 북·미간의 위기상황 및 이러한 위기상황하에서의 북한의 위기관리에 대해 분석하고자 한다. 이는 탈냉전기 북한의 ‘핵의혹’과 이를 계기로 촉발되어 전개되는 과정에 드러난 북한의 위기관리 특징 및 패턴 그리고 북한 위기관리의 딜레마와 한계를 북-미관계를 중심으로 하여 밝혀보고자 하는 것이다. 이러한 연구목적에 따른 본 연구의 초점은 ‘핵의혹’으로 인한 북·미 위기상황에서 전개되는 북한 지도부의 환경에 대한 위협 및 위기인식과 손익계산에 기초한 국익추구 정책결정 그리고 위기관리 전략 및 행태를 북한을 중심으로 하여 분석한다. 본 연구가 1990년대 초의 북한의 ‘핵의 혹’으로 인한 한반도 위기를 북한의 위기관리에 초점을 두어 연구하고자 하는 배경에는 그동안 한반도 위기와 관련된 여러 연구들이 있었음에도 불구하고, 한반도 위기의 주요 행위자인 북한을 중심으로 한 연구가 드문 실정에 기인한다. 그리하여 본 연구는 북한의 ‘핵의혹’과 이로 인한 한반도 위기에 대해 북한의 위기관리를 통해 분석하고자 하며, 독특한 사회주의국가로서 북한이 보이는 이데올로기적 또는 체제 및 정권의 성격에 주목하기보다는 북한도 다른 일반국가들처럼 국가이익을 최우선시하며 이에 기초하여 정책결정을 추진·집행하고 당면한 위기를 관리해나간다는 대전제 하에 본 연구의 주제를 분석하고자 하였다.

영문 초록

Major crisis management studies have significantly developed a theoretical framework based on the United States's and Soviet Union experience of crises after the Cuba missile crisis in October 1962. The main thrust of crisis management focuses on the balance and reconciliation of two diverse elements during the crises: 'bilateral competition' and ;shared danger'. This central policy dilemma of crisis management is particularly significant on the Korean peninsular which is one of the most volatile areas in the world. Although the Korean War ended in 1953, military tensions between North Korea and U.S. continue to exist. The main objective of this dissertation examines the dominant characteristic of North Korea's crisis management with particular emphasis on of crisis the North Korea and U.S. surrounding North Korea's nuclear suspicion from 1992 to 1994. North Korea's crisis management towards U.S was understood North Korea's Crisis management Decision-Making Process. North Korea's Crisis management Decision-Making Process was set up as follows, adopting the theory and model from Edward A Kolodziej & Robert E. Harkavy For an analytical framework, three factors have been selected from a broad survey of theoretical and case-study literature on crisis management as those that are most helpful in understanding the particular crisis management processes and tasks that confronted the North Korea: (1) crisis objectives and crisis solution means: (2) crisis management strategies: (3) images of U.S's intentions and crisis dynamics. Moreover, it seeks to identify lessons learned from the management of each Korean crisis. Examining each case within a common analytical framework, this study seeks to identify the central nature of North Korea's dilemmas, efforts, and problems in crisis management toward U.S. The main findings of this thesis are: (1) North Korean leaders experienced the fundamental policy dilemma of crisis management towards U.S: (2) North Korea limited both its crisis objectives and the means to be employed. North Korean military moves to signal firm resolution were largely co-ordinated with and made consistent with political objectives and diplomatic actions: (3) North Korea's major crisis management strategies were designed to deter or dissuade U.S. from escalating towards stronger action, preserve its reputation for firmness, and increase U.S.'s estimate of the costs of escalation and war: (4) within the restraints of credible military capabilities and limited operational control over its own armed forces, North Korea tried to manipulate the U.S.: (5) the North Korean leaders' image of crisis dynamics directly affected their crisis management behaviour, including their choices of crisis objectives and crisis management strategies. On the whole, the capacity of North Korea to manage crises short of war on the Korean peninsular depended on influencing the behaviour of the U.S. North Korea has worked effectively crisis that has confronted U.S. and persuaded it to draw back from crises. Moreover, it has been fully involved in the vital crisis management process of limiting risks by moderating its own crisis objectives and crisis behaviour. With these examination, this study seeks to fill the existing gap in crisis management research on the Korean peninsular by employing a theoretical perspective of crisis management which is applied to nuclear crisis between North Korea and U.S. Despite the profound importance of North Korean Crisis management on the Korean peninsula, not much attention has been paid to North Korean crisis management behaviour so far. Perhaps this study represents one of the few major examinations of North Korea's crisis management behaviour towards U.S. Moreover, it is hoped that this study will contribute to the development of North Korean crisis management in the future.

목차

Ⅰ. 서론

Ⅱ. 분석 틀

Ⅲ. 북한의 위기관리 정책결정 과정

Ⅳ. 북한의 위기관리 능력과 특징 분석

Ⅴ. 결론

참고문헌

키워드

핵합의 핵의혹 국가이익 위기관리 위협 위기인식 위기관리 정책결정 한반도 위기 nuclear suspicion crisis behaviour crisis objectives crisis solution means crisis management strategies crisis perception crisis dynamics