3차 남북정상회담의 動因에 관한 전망이론적 분석

• 영문명: A Prospect theoretical Analysis on the Drivers of the Third South-North Summit
• 발행기관: 한국통일전략학회
• 저자명: 이강경(Lee, Kangkyong) 신진(Shin, Jin)
• 간행물 정보: 『통일전략』18권 3호, 179~206쪽, 전체 28쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 정치외교학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2018.09.30

국문 초록

북한은 2017년 6차 핵실험과 신형 대륙간탄도미사일 화성-15형의시험발사를 계기로 국가핵무력 완성을 공식 선언했다. 북한의 고도화된핵․미사일 위협은 한반도와 동북아를 넘어 세계평화와 안정을 위협하는게임체인저(Game changer)로 인식되었다. 이에 국제사회는 고강도의대북제재를 이어나갔고 미국의 트럼프 행정부는 군사옵션을 검토하는등 한반도에는 그 어느 때보다 위기가 고조되었다. 하지만 평창 동계올림픽을 앞둔 2018년 1월, 북한 김정은 국무위원장의 신년사를 계기로오랫동안 단절되었던 남북간 대화채널이 가동되었고 남북고위급회담과특별사절단 교환방문이 성사되면서 역사적인 3차 남북정상회담이 개최되었다. 본 연구는 한반도의 위기상황 속에서 열린 평창 동계올림픽을계기로 역사적인 3차 남북정상회담이 개최된 동인(動因)을 전망이론적관점에서 분석하였다. 이를 위해 북한의 고도화된 핵․미사일 위협을 중심으로 동북아 안보정세를 평가하고 이에 따른 남․북한의 준거점 변화를분석하였다. 특히 ‘도보다리 회담’으로 상징되는 4.27 남북정상회담은국제사회의 관심속에서 6.12 북미 정상회담 개최의 마중물 역할을 한것으로 평가된다. 3차 남북정상회담은 한반도 비핵화와 종전선언 및 평화체제 구축 등 향후 남북관계 발전에 커다란 함의를 갖는다고 판단된다.

영문 초록

In 2017, North Korea's sixth nuclear test and the launch of an ICBM Hwasong-15 missile test increased the crisis on the Korean Peninsula. However, the 2018 Pyeongchang Winter Olympics opened the door to inter-Korean dialogue. And the two Koreas agreed to held a summit through an exchange visit of special envoys. The 2018 inter-Korean summit took place on 27 April, on the South Korean side of the Joint Security Area, between Moon Jae-in, President of South Korea, and Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the Workers' Party of Korea, and Supreme Leader of North Korea. The summit took place after the two sides held several meetings in preparation for the joint attendance at the 2018 Winter Olympics. The summit was focused on the North Korean nuclear weapons program and denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. After the summit, the two leaders jointly announced the Panmunjeom Declaration for Peace, prosperity and unification on the Korean Peninsula. In this paper, we looked at the performance and significance of the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics to analyze the major factors that changed the crisis situation on the Korean Peninsula into a dialogue phase, and considered the change in the reference point of the two Koreas from a theoretical perspective. South Korea has been strengthening its deterrence against North Korea, but it faced serious security threats due to the North's nuclear and missile threats and changed its focus to the area of loss. South Korea has chosen a risk-averse strategy to build peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula ahead of the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics. Meanwhile, North Korea completed its nuclear program but faced strong sanctions from the international community. It is believed that North Korea, which has changed its focus to the loss zone, has chosen a strategy to avoid danger in order to survive the regime. It is analyzed that South and North Korea have sought a survival strategy in response to the change of reference point, considering the situation in Northeast Asia and the competition for hegemony between the U.S. and China. As a result, the third inter-Korean summit and the North Korea-U.S. summit were held, and a milestone in the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula and the establishment of a peace regime was prepared.

키워드

전망이론 준거점 평창 동계올림픽 제3차 남북정상회담 한반도 비핵화 Prospect Theory Reference Point Pyeongchang Winter Olympics Inter-Korean summit Denuclearization of Korean Peninsula