한-GCC FTA의 경제적 파급효과에 관한 연구

• 영문명: The Potential Economic Effects of a Korea-GCC FTA
• 발행기관: 한국무역연구원
• 저자명: 윤승환(Seung-Hwan Yoon)
• 간행물 정보: 『무역연구』제17권 제5호, 219~240쪽, 전체 22쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 무역학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2021.10.30

영문 초록

Purpose-Currently, the Korean government has not officially taken a position on the Korea-GCC FTA negotiations due to the Middle East s complicated political and economic situation. However, this study attempts to analyze the potential economic effects of an FTA between Korea and GCC member countries, taking into account the possibility of a resumption in the future. Design/Methodology/Approach-Using a global, multisector, computable-general-equilibrium (GTAP) model and GTAP database Version 10A (the most recent), this paper undertakes the identification of the economic impacts of a Korea-GCC FTA. The baseline scenario was designed using the World Bank s macroeconomic data, such as real GDP, population, labor, and capital from 2015 to 2019 to calculate future estimates. Policy scenarios were established by a (1) 90% reduction in tariffs on goods, (2) a 50% reduction in ad valorem tariff equivalents on services, (3) a 0.15% increase in TFP (total factor productivity), and (4) lastly, the above three scenarios were combined to see the effects of a Korea-GCC FTA. Findings Simulation results showed that real GDP in Korea (0.11%) and GCC member countries (0.13% ~ 0.46%) increased, indicating that a Korea-GCC FTA would have a positive impact on economic growth on both sides. The impact on welfare also reveals similar results to GDP, showing the largest increase in Korea (about USD 2.2 billion), followed by Saudi Arabia and UAE (about USD 2 billion and USD 1.6 billion, respectively). When looking at the effect of Korea s exports by industry, exports of automobiles and parts increased the most (about USD 1.5 billion), followed by the electronics (about USD 1.19 billion), machinery (about USD 1.05 billion), steel (about USD 1 billion), and petrochemical (about USD 420 million) industries, suggesting that overall exports are expected to increase in Korea s manufacturing industry. In the case of the petrochemical industry, exports to countries other than GCC member countries are expected to increase by approximately USD 3.9 billion, which is the largest benefit. Research Implications-This study suggests the justification and necessity of an FTA. Overall, positive effects will be expected in terms of real GDP, welfare, exports, and imports. In addition, if Korea and GCC member countries sign an FTA, exports of Korea s major manufacturing sectors will increase, and GCC member countries will see an increase in oil (crude oil) and gas exports, creating a win-win situation. As the industrial structure between the two sides is complementary, a synergy effect can be expected, and an FTA with GCC countries rich in natural resources such as oil and gas can enhance energy security.

목차

Ⅰ. 서론

Ⅱ. 한-GCC 교역 관계 및 선행 연구

Ⅲ. 수입 중간재 활용에 따른 생산성 제고 효과

Ⅳ. 분석 결과

Ⅴ. 결론

References

키워드

CGE(Computable General Equilibrium) Economic Welfare FTA (Free Trade Agreement) GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) International Trade