GE 모형을 이용한 AEO MRA 한국 수출 효과 분석

• 영문명: Analysis of AEO MRA’s Export Effect to Korea Using the CGE Model: Focusing on AEO MRA in Korea and Russia
• 발행기관: 한국무역연구원
• 저자명: 심창용(Chang-Yong Shim) 홍진영(Jin-Young Hong) 박슬기(Seul-Ki Park)
• 간행물 정보: 『무역연구』제17권 제5호, 261~275쪽, 전체 15쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 무역학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2021.10.30

영문 초록

Purpose - The purpose of this study was to predict AEO MRA effects in advance by analyzing the economic ripple effect of AEO MRA in Korea and Russia via CGE. Design/Methodology/Approach - Through the gravity model, we empirically analyzed the effect of Korea’s AEO MRA, and that effect was converted into a tariff equivalent value. Prediction analysis was conducted through CGE. Findings - As a result of analyzing the effects of the AEO MRA signed by Korea so far as a tariff equivalent value, it was estimated that there was a tariff reduction effect of 4.4%~8.8%, and using this value, the economic ripple effect of the Korea-Russia AEO MRA, which is currently expected to be signed, was investigated. In Korea, GDP was estimated to increase by about 0.008-0.012% and in Russia by 0.0015%-0.0029%, and most export items between the two countries were also analyzed to have a positive effect. Research Implications - Using CGE, this study conducted economic impact assessment which is limited in AEO MRA related studies and presented implications. In addition, it proposed one of the prediction analysis methods in AEO.

목차

Ⅰ. 서론

Ⅱ. AEO 현황 및 한·러 수출 교역 현황

Ⅲ. 파급영향 분석 모형 및 자료

Ⅳ. 파급영향 분석결과

Ⅴ. 결론 및 시사점

References

키워드

AEO MRA CGE(Computable General Equilibrium) Gravity Model Korea Russia