중남미 지역과 FTA 체결의 효과 분석 및 북미 통상에 미치는 영향 연구

• 영문명: The Economic Effects of FTA’s with South American Countries and its Indirect Effects to Present American FTA Partners: Using the CGE Approach
• 발행기관: 한국무역연구원
• 저자명: 노재확(Jae-Whak Roh)
• 간행물 정보: 『무역연구』제11권 제6호, 175~192쪽, 전체 18쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 무역학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2015.12.31

영문 초록

The Korean government announced plans to enter into FTAs with South American countries such as Mexico, Ecuador, MERCOSUR (Mercado Común del Sur) and SICA (Sistema de la Integración Centro-Americana). CGE simulation results revealed that welfare increases by 0.18% when an FTA is concluded with Mexico and Ecuador, by 0.94% with MERCOSUR and by 0.07% with SICA. And the size of increase in welfare are foreseen to be the order of MERCOSUR, Mexico and Ecuador, and SICA. If Korea makes FTA with the whole latin group countries, mentioned above, simultaneously, 0.7% of welfare are expected to increase. At the same time, results revealed that Korea’s output also, accordingly, increases by 0.2% when an FTA is made with Mexico and Ecuador, by 0.4% with MERCOSUR and by 0.085% with SICA. If Korea makes FTA with the whole above group countries at the same time, 0.72% of output are expected to increase. However, the simulation shows that the welfare effects are slightly negative to the welfare level of our present FTA partners in American countries (Canada, U.S., Chile and Peru). Thus, accordingly, the effects to production are slightly negative as well.

목차

Abstract

I. 서론

II. 방법론 및 기존연구

III. 시뮬레이션 준비

IV. CGE 시뮬레이션 결과

V. 결론

References

Appendix

키워드

CGE Economic Impacts North America South America