The Changing Relationship between UK Home Prices and Rents

• 발행기관: 한국외국어대학교 영미연구소
• 저자명: 정근석(Chung Keun suk) 김장열(Kim Jan R)
• 간행물 정보: 『영미연구』제32집, 309~330쪽, 전체 22쪽
• 주제분류: 어문학 > 영어와문학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2014.12.30

영문 초록

The present value models of house prices predict that house prices and rents are related via a stable price-to-rents ratio, as house prices are equal to the present discounted values of future rents. The prolonged divergence of the UK house prices from rents since the mid-1990s has put into question the stability of the price-rents relation. In this paper, we reexamine the changing relationship between house price and rents using a Markov-switching error correction model, and we find two distinct regimes in the price-rents relation. In one regime, which is identified mainly in the pre-1988 era, the long-run equilibrium relationship corresponds to the prediction of the present value models, i.e., the stable price-to-rents ratio. The other regime, prevailing since 1988 forward, also involves a stationary price-rents relation. As such, this regime is not characterized with speculative bubbles. However, the long-run relation in this regime is difficult to explain by the present value models, and the identified regime period exhibits a long swing in the price-rents ratio.

목차

Ⅰ. Introduction

Ⅱ. The Model

Ⅲ. Estimation Results

Ⅳ. Conclusion

Works Cited

Abstract

키워드

주택가격 월세 주택가격-월세비율 오차수정모형 국면 전환 house price rents price-rent ratio error correction model regime switching