A Study on the Economic Effects of the Korea-EU FTA Using a Dynamic CGE Model

• 영문명: A Study on the Economic Effects of the Korea-EU FTA Using a Dynamic CGE Model
• 발행기관: 한국무역연구원
• 저자명: Jong-Hwan Ko
• 간행물 정보: 『무역연구』제10권 제1호, 225~250쪽, 전체 25쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 무역학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2014.02.28

영문 초록

This study aims to conduct a quantitative assessment of the potential economic effects of the Korea-EU FTA, which took effect on 1 July 2011. The study uses a recursively dynamic CGE model that makes it possible to explicitly take into account capital accumulation over time and different timing of policy implementations related to the FTA. Tariff reductions for primary sectors and manufacturing sectors, as well as tariff equivalents of services are considered for trade liberalization between Korea and the EU. Tariff reductions are assumed to be implemented based on the concessions agreed upon in the Korea-EU FTA over the period 2011 to 2020. Major findings of the study are that Korea will gain an additional increase in real GDP of 1.22% to 1.44% by 2025 and the country s welfare will rise by $8.2 billion to $9.3 billion by 2025. Except for livestock, dairy products, and processed food, Korea s domestic production in all other industries will increase. The increase in output will be made possible, in part, by increased capital stock, which is funded by foreign investors. The Korea-EU FTA will result in an increase in foreign investment and capital stocks in Korea. The opening up of domestic markets to foreign investment as a result of the Korea-EU FTA will lead to the rise in foreign ownership of domestic assets.

목차

Abstract

Ⅰ. Introduction

Ⅱ. The CGE Model and Data

Ⅲ. Scenarios of the Korea-EU FTA

Ⅳ. Simulation Results

Ⅴ. Conclusion

References

키워드

Korea-EU FTA. dynamic CGE model tariffs liberalization of trade in services economic effects