Predicting Chinese tourism demand using Grey System Model

• 영문명: Predicting Chinese tourism demand using Grey System Model
• 발행기관: 한국관광학회
• 저자명: WANG Zhanwei Hee-Young Hurr
• 간행물 정보: 『한국관광학회 국제학술발표대회집』제80차 강원평창 국제학술대회, 78~93쪽, 전체 16쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 관광학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2016.07.13

영문 초록

For three consecutive years (2013~2015), among all foreign tourists who visited Korea, Chinese tourists were the most and accounted for nearly half of that (46.30% in 2015), and the consumption of Chinese tourists was also very impressive (the overall consumption of Chinese tourists in 2013 was 7.6722 trillion won accounted for 49% ). 'Youke' has become a new word in Korean language. Therefore, research on the growth trend of Chinese tourists who visit Korea has become a useful and meaningful subject. From such a background, this paper uses the equal-dimension gray filling model based on the grey system theory, and quantified forecasts the number of Chinese tourists who will visit Korea in the next 10 years (2016~2025). This paper also quantified forecasts the number of Chinese tourists who will visit Korea during the Pyeongchang Winter Olympics year 2018. The quantified forecast is based on the data during the period of 2007~2015. The error between the forecast result of the constructed model and the factual value is only about 1%. This paper proves that the method has the merits of high forecast precision, and instructive sense on the forecast for the Chinese tourists demand. The results provide an important reference for the Korean tourism industry and other relevant departments.

키워드

grey system theory equal-dimension gray filling model Chinese tourists tourism demand quantified forecast