몽골 자원기반 경제와 재정정책 과제

• 영문명: Resource-Based Economy in Mongolia and Fiscal Policy Issues
• 발행기관: 한국몽골학회
• 저자명: 김홍진(Kim, Hong-Jin)
• 간행물 정보: 『몽골학』제32호, 383~414쪽, 전체 32쪽
• 주제분류: 인문학 > 기타인문학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2012.02.28

영문 초록

This paper investigates some fiscal policy issues to foster macroeconomic stability and growth under the resource-based economy in Mongolia. Mongolia is rich in natural resources, and also one of the top 10 resource abundant countries in the world. The economy depends heavily on the mineral sector, while non-mineral sectors have been running down for years. Mongolia should exploit mineral deposits of strategic importance, generate and accumulate savings, ensure intensive and high economic growth, and support other strategic industries. Mongolia’s midium-term prospect looks excellent from the economic growth perspective. However, there are concerns for inflation, unemployment, poverty, and Dutch disease. To achieve broadly-shared growth and stabilize Mongolian economy in the near future, the following issues of fiscal policy should be resolved. First, the share of fiscal deficits to GDP, as well as that of public debt to GDP, is very high. It should be lowered in the near future, so that government saving should be increased. Second, the pro-cyclical fiscal policy should be terminated immediately to combat Dutch disease. Third, an effective public investment managing system is an essential requirement if Mongolia meets the challenge of ensuring that the mineral assets below the ground are transformed into sustainable capital assets above ground. Mongolia’s current system is inadequate and needs to be urgently improved. Lastly, unconditional cash distribution to every citizen should be discontinued and a cash benefit targeted to the poor should be introduced.

목차

Ⅰ. 서론

Ⅱ. 몽골 자원기반 경제의 특성

1. 높은 자원산업 의존도

2. 산업 간 격차 확대

3. 불확실성과 변동성

Ⅲ. 몽골경제의 중장기 성장 전망

Ⅳ. 재정정책의 주요 과제

1. 높은 재정적자와 공공부채

2. 경기 순응적(pro-cyclical) 재정정책

3. 공공투자의 효율성 제고

4. 현금 무상 분배

Ⅴ. 요약 및 결론

키워드

몽골 자원기반 경제 계층간 동반성장 재정정책 네덜란드 병 Mongolia resource-based economy broadly-shared growth fiscal policy Dutch disease