로짓모형과 오차수정모형을 이용한 아파트가격 상승확률 예측

• 영문명: Predicting the Probability of Apartment Price Increase by Using the Logit & Error Correction Model
• 발행기관: 대한부동산학회
• 저자명: 배영균(Bae, Young Kyun)
• 간행물 정보: 『대한부동산학회지』제41호, 235~253쪽, 전체 19쪽
• 주제분류: 사회과학 > 지역개발
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2015.12.30

영문 초록

This paper predicts the probability of apartment price increase in Seoul by using a Logit & Error Correction Model. In order to analyze the Error Correction Model, market equilibrium prices are estimated by using a reduced-form equation arising from the equilibrium condition of demand and supply. The results suggest that the estimated market equilibrium prices equation fits the data very well and variables in the equation are statistically significant at the 1% level. For analyzing the short-run dynamic features of apartment prices, the Error Correction Model is built and estimated. The Error Correction Model uses the estimates of the market equilibrium prices from the first-stage. The empirical results show that apartment prices exhibit a strong serial correlation, 0.355 and the rate of mean reversion is 0.251. Those independent variables in the Error Correction Model are, then, used for independent variables in the Logit model to predict the probability of price increase. Dependent variable(Y) in the Logit Model is apartment price changes. If the price increse, the value of Y is 1 and if decrease, Y is 0.

목차

Ⅰ. 서론

Ⅱ. 이론적 고찰

1. 로짓모형(Logit Model)

2. 시장균형가격

3. 오차수정모형

Ⅲ. 시장균형가격 추정

1. 시장균형가격 추정에서의 독립변수와 자료

2. 시장균형가격 추정 회귀모형

3. 시장균형가격 추정 결과

Ⅳ. 오차수정모형 추정

1. 오차수정모형에서의 변수

2. 오차수정모형 추정 결과

Ⅴ. 아파트가격 상승확률 예측

1. 추정모형과 변수

2. 로짓모형 추정 결과

Ⅵ. 결론

키워드

Logit Model Market Equilibrium Price Error Correction Model Serial Correlation,Mean Reversion