배추수급모형 추정을 통한 가격변동 시나리오 분석

• 영문명: Scenario Analysis of Price Fluctuation through Estimating Chinese Cabbage Supply-Demand Model
• 발행기관: 한국농식품정책학회
• 저자명: 정호중(Ho-Jung Jeong) 정원호(Won-Ho Chung)
• 간행물 정보: 『농업경영.정책연구』농업경영·정책연구 43권 4호, 897~920쪽, 전체 24쪽
• 주제분류: 농수해양 > 식품과학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2016.12.31

영문 초록

This study decomposes price fluctuation factors of chinese cabbage into three factors: change in acreage, yield response factors, and other factors affecting market sales volume. We estimate the parameters of yield response model and wholesale price model for each of the three types of cabbage: spring, highland, and autumn cabbage. Based on the estimation results, we conduct a scenario analysis to prepare an action plan to respond to sharp price fluctuations. The results of scenario analysis show that cabbage price stability in the harvest season depends on modest temperature and precipitation during growing season, minimized typhoon damage, and maintenance of stable crop acreage. If one of the factors affecting the harvest price is forecasted to change sharply, we need to take immediate measures on supply-demand stabilization.

목차

Ⅰ. 서 론

Ⅱ. 배추수급 동향

Ⅲ. 수급모형 추정

Ⅳ. 상황별 배추 가격변화 시나리오 분석

Ⅴ. 요약 및 결론

키워드

Price Fluctuation Factors Yield Response Model Wholesale Price Model Scenario Analysis Supply-Demand Stabilization