인구구조모형과 시계열모형 결합을 통한 식품 지출액 예측

• 영문명: Forecasting Food Expenditure by Combining a Population Structure Model with Autoregressive Specification
• 발행기관: 한국농식품정책학회
• 저자명: 진현정(Hyun Joung Jin) 임선영(Yim Sunyoung)
• 간행물 정보: 『농업경영.정책연구』농업경영·정책연구 43권 4호, 713~732쪽, 전체 20쪽
• 주제분류: 농수해양 > 식품과학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2016.12.31

영문 초록

This study attempts to forecast food expenditure, including expenditure for eating out, a decade later which might vary, according to changing structure of demographics. Focus was given to a comparison for the changes of food expenditure in single households versus the changes in general households. For estimation, data of Household Income and Expenditure Survey and Household Projection by Statistics Korea were used. The data were plugged into a modified model of 孟 哲男․井田憲計(2013) to investigate how the structure of food expenditure evolves in accordance with changes in total population, age structure, and family type. The 孟․井田 model was modified by incorporating an autoregressive (AR) specification to remedy a shortcoming of the model. Results show that while trends due to other factors than changes in population structure act to increase the overall food expenditure, the changes in population and household structure affect the expenditure to decrease. This suggests a slowdown in the total food consumption according to the stagnant and aging population in following decades. The increase in single households will affect the food expenditure to increase, but decreasing total number and average family member of general households and aging population will affect in the opposite direction.

목차

Ⅰ. 서 론

Ⅱ. 연구모형

Ⅲ. 연령구조와 식품 소비 현황

Ⅳ. 추정 결과

Ⅴ. 결 론

키워드

Household Structure Single Households Food Expenditure Forecasting 孟 哲男․ 井田憲計 Model