정규 확률과정을 사용한 공조 시스템의 전력 소모량 예측에 관한 연구

• 영문명: A Study on the Prediction of Power Consumption in the Air-Conditioning System by Using the Gaussian Process
• 발행기관: 한국산업경영시스템학회
• 저자명: 이창용(Chang Yong Lee) 송근수(Gen soo Song) 김진호(Jin ho Kim)
• 간행물 정보: 『산업경영시스템학회지』제39권 제1호, 64~72쪽, 전체 9쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경영학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2016.03.30

영문 초록

In this paper, we utilize a Gaussian process to predict the power consumption in the air-conditioning system. As the power consumption in the air-conditioning system takes a form of a time-series and the prediction of the power consumption becomes very important from the perspective of the efficient energy management, it is worth to investigate the time-series model for the prediction of the power consumption. To this end, we apply the Gaussian process to predict the power consumption, in which the Gaussian process provides a prior probability to every possible function and higher probabilities are given to functions that are more likely consistent with the empirical data. We also discuss how to estimate the hyper-parameters, which are parameters in the covariance function of the Gaussian process model. We estimated the hyper-parameters with two different methods (marginal likelihood and leave-one-out cross validation) and obtained a model that pertinently describes the data and the results are more or less independent of the estimation method of hyper-parameters. We validated the prediction results by the error analysis of the mean relative error and the mean absolute error. The mean relative error analysis showed that about 3.4% of the predicted value came from the error, and the mean absolute error analysis confirmed that the error in within the standard deviation of the predicted value. We also adopt the non-parametric Wilcoxon’s sign-rank test to assess the fitness of the proposed model and found that the null hypothesis of uniformity was accepted under the significance level of 5%. These results can be applied to a more elaborate control of the power consumption in the air-conditioning system.

목차

Abstract

1. 서론

2. 정규 확률과정(Gaussian Process)

3. 공분산 함수와 초월매개변수 추정

4. 실험 환경 및 결과

5. 요약 및 결론

Acknowledgement

References

키워드

Air-Conditioning System Gaussian Process Bayesian Statistics Time-Series Prediction