베이지안넷 기반의 프로젝트 일정리스크 평가

• 영문명: Project Schedule Risk Assessment Based on Bayesian Nets
• 발행기관: 한국산업경영시스템학회
• 저자명: 성홍석(Hong suk Sung) 박철순(Chul soon Park)
• 간행물 정보: 『산업경영시스템학회지』제39권 제1호, 9~16쪽, 전체 8쪽
• 주제분류: 경제경영 > 경영학
• 파일형태: PDF
• 발행일자: 2016.03.30

영문 초록

The project schedule risk in the engineering and facility construction industry is increasingly considered as important management factor because the risks in terms of schedule or deadline may significantly affect the project cost. Especially, the project-based operating companies attempt to find the best estimate of the project completion time for use at their proposals, and therefore, usually have much interest in accurate estimation of the duration of the projects. In general, the management of projects schedule risk is achieved by modeling project schedule with PERT/CPM techniques, and then performing risk assessment with simulation such as Monte-Carlo simulation method. However, since these approaches require the accumulated executional data, which are not usually available in project-based operating company, and, further, they cannot reflect various schedule constraints, which usually are met during the project execution, the project managers have difficulty in preparing for the project risks in advance of their occurrence in the project execution. As these constraints may affect time and cost which role as the crucial evaluation factors to the quality of the project result, they must be identified and described in advance of their occurrence in the project management. This paper proposes a Bayesian Net based methodology for estimating project schedule risk by identifying and enforcing the project risks and its response plan which may occur in storage tank engineering and construction project environment. First, we translated the schedule network with the project risks and its response plan into Bayesian Net. Second, we analyzed the integrated Bayesian Net and suggested an estimate of project schedule risk with simulation approach. Finally, we applied our approach to a storage tank construction project to validate its feasibility.

목차

Abstract

1. 서론

2. 관련 연구

3. 베이지안넷 기반의 리스크평가 모델

4. 사례연구(Case Study)

5. 결론 및 추후 연구

References

키워드

Project Risk Management Project Schedule Risk PERT/CPM Monte-Carlo Simulation Bayesian Nets